The Elastic Customer

Why Linear Marketing is a Struggle in Emerging Markets

Ready… or Not?

It’s payday, and Adamu, a motorcycle taxi rider, finally has cash in hand. For weeks, he’s been eyeing a new smartphone. Today, he walks into a mobile store, ready to buy. But just as he reaches for his wallet, his mind flickers to last week’s fuel price hike. What if it jumps again? Maybe he should hold off.

He leaves the store.

Two days later, after an especially good weekend of earnings, he returns—only to hesitate again. This time, it’s his cousin’s school fees. Then, a loan repayment reminder pings on his phone. The purchase stalls once more.

From the retailer’s perspective, this should have been an easy sale. The data says Ayo is a prime customer: He clicked on ads. He spent time on the product page. He even visited the store twice. Every marketing metric suggests he should have converted. But instead, he moves forward, then back—like a tide that never quite reaches shore.

Somewhere, the product owner is staring at a dashboard, confused. What happened?

This is where traditional marketing logic breaks down. The funnel says customers progress neatly from awareness to purchase. But in reality—especially in emerging markets—customers don’t just move forward. They stretch toward a decision, then snap back due to financial shocks, trust gaps, or social validation cycles.

For the product owner, this isn’t just a curiosity—it’s a threat to growth. Retargeting ads won’t fix it. More discounts won’t fix it. Understanding why customers behave elastically—and designing for it—will.

In markets like these, pushing customers forward isn’t the only path, one must build a strategy that moves with them in whatever direction they find themselves going in.

When the Funnel Fails

Traditional marketing wisdom tells us customers move in a straight line from discovery to purchase. This conventional framework¹ outlines five distinct stages of market awareness:

1. The Unaware Stage: Customers don't know they have a problem

2. Problem-Aware Stage: They recognize the issue but don't know solutions exist

3. Solution-Aware Stage: They know solutions exist but aren't sure which to choose

4. Product-Aware Stage: They know your product but aren't convinced it's right for them

5. Most Aware Stage: They're ready to buy but need the right offer

In practice, this linear progression assumes that once customers advance through a stage, they don't retreat. It's built on the foundation of stable middle-class economies where consumers have predictable income, established trust in institutions, and individual decision-making power.

But in emerging markets, awareness isn't linear, it's elastic.

Like a rubber band, customers stretch forward toward adoption, then snap back into hesitation. For reasons that - to an operator that uses templates from developed markets, often defy reasoning. Understanding this dynamic is crucial to scale in these environments.

The Problem with Linear Thinking

Here’s a scenario I’ve seen play out a few times - A digital lending platform that celebrated hitting say 100,000 downloads in its first month. Six months later, only 5% of those users remained active. The company had mistaken initial interest for sustained engagement. They discovered their customers weren't moving down a marketing funnel—they were cycling between curiosity, skepticism, and careful testing.

This pattern repeats. A solar energy startup sees users show strong initial interest, attend demonstrations, and even sign preliminary contracts. Then suddenly, they pull back. Not because they don't want the product, but because adoption in these markets follows a different rhythm set by market and cultural dynamics.

Why Customers Move Backwards

Three key factors drive this elastic movement:

Trust Gaps and Recovery

When an agricultural payments platform had one delayed settlement to farmers, an entire farming cooperative suspends usage. The trust breach not just paused adoption, it reversed it. Previously enthusiastic users stepped back into skepticism. Smart companies build "trust reinforcement checkpoints" into their growth strategy, using community leaders and local agents to rebuild confidence when it wavers.

Economic Fluidity

In pre-middle class economies, unpredictable income is the norm. A transportation financing company, for instance, learns this lesson when analyzing their "abandoned" applications. Users weren't rejecting the service when offered; but they were timing their commitment around harvest seasons and income spikes they experience at that time. A company like that can now design its engagement strategy around these economic rhythms rather than arbitrary marketing calendars.

Community Validation Cycles

A healthcare technology platform can discover that individual marketing means little without community endorsement. When they stopped targeting patients directly and instead worked through local community health workers—trusted figures who could validate the service within existing social structures - numbers grow more sustainably.

Building for Elastic Awareness

Success in these markets requires a fundamental shift in approach:

1. Design Multiple Entry Points

A digital insurance provider can create micro-engagement opportunities instead of pushing for full adoption. They can let users start with single-day coverage for specific events, building trust through small interactions rather than demanding immediate long-term commitment - most people think a long-term commitment means a year but for many this can mean a week.

2. Create Recovery Loops

Rather than writing off users who step back, build pathways for their return. A logistics startup in could implement a "trust recapture" mechanisms—like allowing small businesses to test the service with a single shipment before committing to longer contracts.

3. Enable Social Proof

A renewable energy company can identify "energy champions" in each community—early adopters whose successful experience becomes a tangible proof point for others. This approach recognizes that in emerging markets, seeing is believing.

The Elastic Customer Playbook

Companies winning in elastic awareness markets follow a different set of rules:

• They measure success in cycles, not conversion rates

• They invest in community infrastructure alongside / over marketing campaigns

• They build flexible engagement models that accommodate stop-start adoption patterns

• They prioritize trust-building features over rapid scaling features

The Path Forward

Scaling in emerging markets demands a shift from linear to cyclical thinking. Success comes not from pushing customers down a funnel, but from supporting their natural movement between interest, hesitation, and gradual adoption. Over time, the cycle will settle down and become linear as expected.

They're the ones that understand and work within the elastic nature of emerging market awareness as part of their acquisition and marketing strategy so that we build businesses that flex with their customers' reality rather than fighting against it.

This an important step in rethinking growth - not just how to convert customers faster but also how to stay relevant through their entire adoption journey, no matter how long or winding that path may be.

Adamu's smartphone story isn't unique—it's the daily reality for millions in emerging markets who balance aspirations against headwinds like fuel price spikes, family obligations, and unpredictable income streams. Each time he steps away from the counter, he's teaching us something vital about how customers move in these markets. The future belongs to businesses that recognize these patterns not as friction to eliminate, but as natural rhythms to work within.

1. Framework developed by Eugene Schwartz